Such a delicate balance...

I watched a movie today, and for some reason it got me thinking. Have you really thought about how delicate the balace of all things are in society or rather in the world?

Let go through some things and think about the results. Here are a few major catastophies that aren't very farfetched that could happen relativly easy.

Viral outbreaks, viral outbreaks are deadly and if the absolute correct measures arent taken with a potent virus things can get out of and beyond control. If that happens and the virus spread cross country and continent even, we see the breakdown of society. People abandon their posts, power goes out, sanitation is gone, the military tries their best to contain things but in the end often fail.

EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) , EMP bombs may be the most simple thing to use. All you need is ONE bomb and something to get it 300 miles in the air and you can take Americas grid down and they would be left to rot. That could happen to any country. Several and the world is offline. Without power larger more sophisticated countries begin to tear themselves apart. Most bad things immaginable happen.

Mass nuclear and chemical warfare. Both the U.S. and Russia, have enough chemical weapons to kill everything on the surface of the earth. As do we have enough nuclear power. Although I cannot vouch for the functionality of the Soviets weapons, (20,000 tanks that don't work aren't worth anything). Unless you can shoot down every missle or render them all useless you wont be stopping this catastrphe, this is held in check only on the grounds that both sides would be completely obliterated.

Natural events out in space, space harbors the most powerful destructive tools immaginable, and a whole host of capable candidates to do damage. Asteroids with enough mass to kill everything (nearly) everything on the planet. Only the most staunch microbes will survive down below the earths surface. Gamma Ray bursts ith the potency to destroy crucial elements in the many atmospheric elements around our planet exposing everything to the full power of the sun's UV rays.

Even our own sun has it's own ways of destruction, a large enough solar flare and the magnetic field would either be severly crippled or blown away. It can destroy satelites or send them signals without our consent, possibly triggering a nuclear war. (luckily we have detection methods for solar flares but it isn't fool proof nor can we defend our magnetic field.)

Those are just some of the many catastrophies that can happen not to mention an American market crash which would almost certainly injure other countries severly.

Discuss, other events, prevention methods and anything else you might have to add, this is more of a discussion than anything else but I can see it turning into an arguement about something off topic eventually. (it happens every time.

I can assure you that movies tend to make things far more vulnerable than they are realistically.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

Viral outbreaks, viral outbreaks are deadly and if the absolute correct measures arent taken with a potent virus things can get out of and beyond control. If that happens and the virus spread cross country and continent even, we see the breakdown of society. People abandon their posts, power goes out, sanitation is gone, the military tries their best to contain things but in the end often fail.

Such a thing would require a super virus, a fantasy much like the ubermensch. Most viral species tend not to cause host mortality rates higher than 20%, with those that do being both rare and fragile and unable to achieve a balance between spread and kill rate. It's the reason AIDS is the greater killer in Africa and not Ebola, although Ebola is the seemingly more radical and horrific virus, able to spread rapidly. But AIDS can be found worldwide, but doesn't off its hosts nearly as often as Ebola.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) , EMP bombs may be the most simple thing to use. All you need is ONE bomb and something to get it 300 miles in the air and you can take Americas grid down and they would be left to rot. That could happen to any country. Several and the world is offline. Without power larger more sophisticated countries begin to tear themselves apart. Most bad things immaginable happen.

Our important infrastructure is well protected against EMP, especially government finances and the military. At worst, all our TVs would break.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

Mass nuclear and chemical warfare. Both the U.S. and Russia, have enough chemical weapons to kill everything on the surface of the earth. As do we have enough nuclear power. Although I cannot vouch for the functionality of the Soviets weapons, (20,000 tanks that don't work aren't worth anything). Unless you can shoot down every missle or render them all useless you wont be stopping this catastrphe, this is held in check only on the grounds that both sides would be completely obliterated.

And has been successfully been so for decades. MAD only kicks in when one nation decides to go suicidal, and with the failsafes that are built with such devices, highly unlikely to occur.

Even with North Korea.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

Natural events out in space, space harbors the most powerful destructive tools immaginable, and a whole host of capable candidates to do damage. Asteroids with enough mass to kill everything (nearly) everything on the planet. Only the most staunch microbes will survive down below the earths surface. Gamma Ray bursts ith the potency to destroy crucial elements in the many atmospheric elements around our planet exposing everything to the full power of the sun's UV rays.

Of course. Just don't overshoot the importance or likelihood of such an incident. Chances are you'll die in a traffic accident or of old age first.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

Even our own sun has it's own ways of destruction, a large enough solar flare and the magnetic field would either be severly crippled or blown away. It can destroy satelites or send them signals without our consent, possibly triggering a nuclear war. (luckily we have detection methods for solar flares but it isn't fool proof nor can we defend our magnetic field.)

Proton storms don't send satellites signals that would, in any way, trigger a false nuclear launch detection. Nor would they be able to wash away our magnetic field. At worst, our astronauts would be fried.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

Those are just some of the many catastrophies that can happen not to mention an American market crash which would almost certainly injure other countries severly.

Discuss, other events, prevention methods and anything else you might have to add, this is more of a discussion than anything else but I can see it turning into an arguement about something off topic eventually. (it happens every time.

A stock market crash like the famous twentieth century one will not happen again in America. Ours will be a slow degradation, much like the mortgage situation, and the slow halt of our growth as we are unable to sustain it while the world cashes in on theirs.

Other countries will be hurt, but most are already making plans to move past.

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

I watched a movie today, and for some reason it got me thinking. Have you really thought about how delicate the balace of all things are in society or rather in the world?

Not as delicate as many people think, actually.

In fact, if you get down to it, the world is both more and less vulnerable than most people think. It's vulnerable to things that people don't think about, but proof against most of the things people do worry about. It's odd that way.

However, short of all life on Earth dying the human race will almost certainly stay around.

Viral outbreaks, viral outbreaks are deadly and if the absolute correct measures arent taken with a potent virus things can get out of and beyond control. If that happens and the virus spread cross country and continent even, we see the breakdown of society. People abandon their posts, power goes out, sanitation is gone, the military tries their best to contain things but in the end often fail.

The black plague, probably the worst epidemic in the history of society, didn't cause social collapse.

The thing is, unless you have a mortality rate that is obscenely high, there isn't an issue. If the mortality rate is obscenely high, then the virus will burn itself out quite quickly.

EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) , EMP bombs may be the most simple thing to use. All you need is ONE bomb and something to get it 300 miles in the air and you can take Americas grid down and they would be left to rot. That could happen to any country. Several and the world is offline. Without power larger more sophisticated countries begin to tear themselves apart. Most bad things immaginable happen.

Here's the thing about EMPs, one of only ways to make them on a large scale is with a nuclear weapon. Those are not simple to get or use.

In addition, it's relatively easy to "harden" electronics to make them resistant to EMP pulses. Those that aren't "hardened" can still be fine if they're solid-state.

So, computers would go, TVs would also, but older cars, ovens, heaters (and old thermostats), etc. would all be fine.

Mass nuclear and chemical warfare. Both the U.S. and Russia, have enough chemical weapons to kill everything on the surface of the earth. As do we have enough nuclear power.

Er, the fuel used in nuclear power plants cannot, in fact, explode.

Natural events out in space, space harbors the most powerful destructive tools immaginable, and a whole host of capable candidates to do damage. Asteroids with enough mass to kill everything (nearly) everything on the planet. Only the most staunch microbes will survive down below the earths surface. Gamma Ray bursts ith the potency to destroy crucial elements in the many atmospheric elements around our planet exposing everything to the full power of the sun's UV rays.

Here's the thing: Space is big. If you look at the volume of the solar system, the Earth takes up about 1/25 361 343 433 553 752 111 978 125 000th of it. That's 1 in 25.36 octillion.

If you look at the volume of the universe my calculator refuses to display the number.

The odds of anything hitting the Earth are essentially zero. Things do, of course, still hit the Earth, since there's a surprisingly large amount of junk out there in space. However, space gets "cleaner" every day, and the odds of a catastrophic collision keep dropping.

As for gamma ray bursts, they're highly directional and are, in fact, less likely to hit Earth than a large meteor is.

Even our own sun has it's own ways of destruction, a large enough solar flare and the magnetic field would either be severly crippled or blown away. It can destroy satelites or send them signals without our consent, possibly triggering a nuclear war. (luckily we have detection methods for solar flares but it isn't fool proof nor can we defend our magnetic field.)

Er, solar flares won't get rid of the magnetic field. Now, they can interfere with electronics, but it's temporary at worst.

In addition, satellites aren't in charge of launching nuclear weapons. Even if they were, the odds against a solar flare creating just the right signal for them to suspect a nuclear launch are worse than that of a gamma ray burst hitting the Earth.

Originally Posted by Virtigo

I can assure you that movies tend to make things far more vulnerable than they are realistically.

True, but some things are bad even before the movies get hold of them.

Our important infrastructure is well protected against EMP, especially government finances and the military. At worst, all our TVs would break.

I'm pretty sure a high altitude nuclear detonation would wipe out all electrical circuits.

And has been successfully been so for decades. MAD only kicks in when one nation decides to go suicidal, and with the failsafes that are built with such devices, highly unlikely to occur.

Even with North Korea.

I was just about to mention Korea. Some people are mad enough to use nukes, and we can only hope this doesn't happen, but I'm with you, I don't think it will.

And as for others? How about mass rebellion against society? I think that could happen any day now. I reckon a UK and maybe US revolution is not far off, thanks to some of the stupid laws we have introduced. Like Burglar's Rights in Britain, that entitle burglars to compensation if they fall over in your house, and prevent you from defending yourself if they try to kill you.

Alternatively, the onslaught of anti-social behaviour could cast us all into a future of decaying urban wasteland for 21st Century Earth.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by GDwarf

Here's the thing about EMPs, one of only ways to make them on a large scale is with a nuclear weapon. Those are not simple to get or use.

Lest you are a head of state.

Er, the fuel used in nuclear power plants cannot, in fact, explode.

I was under the impression that if the fuel pipes were exposed to air they did explode, which is why they are kept under coolant. What happened at Chernobyl then? Maybe you are right about fuel, but if you are, something can explode surely?

Nuclear plants can explode, but if they do it's a steam explosion, not a nuclear blast. Chernobyl was not a nuclear explosion. Nuclear waste was, unfortunately, vented into the air.

^Isn't that a similar effect?

I agree with most of the responses, but I need to add that asteroids are in fact a threat. We're hit by them every single day, luckily they're so small that they either burn up in the atmosphere entirely or are no larger than a golfball one they reach the surface, but eventually we'll be hit by a larger one, it's really a case of when rather than if.

It's not something you really have to worry about happening, it could be 100 million years until we're hit by one large enough to threaten humanity, but there's a very real possibility that one could already be heading towards us right now.

Originally Posted by Guy Westcott

^Isn't that a similar effect?

Nope. A nuclear explosion is much, much, much larger, and causes far more radioactive fallout.

Originally Posted by GDwarf

Not as delicate as many people think, actually.

In fact, if you get down to it, the world is both more and less vulnerable than most people think. It's vulnerable to things that people don't think about, but proof against most of the things people do worry about. It's odd that way.

However, short of all life on Earth dying the human race will almost certainly stay around.

There's a reason for that. See, we're protected from the ones people think about because, funnily enouhg, people have thought of them and devised counter-measures to guard against it. And we're not so well protected against things that people don't think about because, funnily enough, the powers-that-be haven't thought of them.

Funny, that.

(Incidentally, there was "the plage" and the "black death", not "the black plague". There were two separate events, although I don't know much about them.)

More on-topic, MAD is only a realistic idea if some kind of fanatic gets their hands on functional nuclear weapons. Otherwise, I doubt even politicians would be dum enough to risk the consequences. That and the meteorite thing are the only ones I can think of that would stand a good chance of taking out the human race.

EDIT: Oh, and that thing about an EMP bomb going off 300 miles up? Unless the EMP bomb happens to have a blast radius exceeding 300 miles, not gonna make a difference.

Ah, my mistake. I meant "The black death".

This is why I shouldn't post at midnight.

My point remains, with the colapse of modern technology, simple comforts and essential services running scarse, not only will people become afraid and disorderly people will begin preaching judgement day there would be mass suicides everywhere. Food would run scare with nothing to harvest it for the masses, no one could control the pests which would run rampant through crops causing massive famine. I doubt anyone would stay to farm anyway in the case of a massive epidemic or EMP bombing.

People in groups are stupid especially in dire situations where they need to be organized and productive.

Agreed on that last point there, but you're forgetting one very important thing: Humanity didn't start out with adfvanced technology. It might take a while, but as long as there were enough humans around, civilisation would get back on it's feet.

And you'd be amazed at what you can do without electricity. Apart from power electrical equipment, the list is pretty much endless.

Originally Posted by Guy Wescott

Like Burglar's Rights in Britain, that entitle burglars to compensation if they fall over in your house, and prevent you from defending yourself if they try to kill you.

What the crap? And I thought the Patriot Act (a few things, though necessary) was bad. >.>

Originally Posted by Flames of Valor

My point remains, with the colapse of modern technology