I believe Osama bin Laden to be dead. He needed dialysis, and it's not like there's a bunch of hospitals in the area that he can sneak in and out of.

Unfortunately, we'll never have confirmation of his death because his followers would never release such information. Why? Al Qaeda knows they're beaten, but at least they can bring about Vietnam syndrome on America if we never capture bin Laden and we still believe him to be alive. If he's dead, and his followers won't talk, we'll never be able to find him, and it would be like the Afghanistan war was unsuccessful. What a morale bust.