Solid article Lex, definitely a more appropriate afternoon's work than a sociology paper =P. Over-generally, it seems like a lot of work for a straight forward disproof, but there's so much interest to find in the little details along the way. I'm sure Stephen King would have loved it. Why no poll?

A single issue I'd raise is the considered point you label "2", which I find to be considered a bit to generally. You define it as the "point when Link enter Termina", but in the original Terminan line that means (as I understand it), "the point when Link falls down the massive hole through the swirly stamps" (ie. the clear transition between OOT's world and MM's) while in latter lines it means "The Dawn of the First Day".
I only mention this because I feel that disinguishing between the two cases may raise new arguments in your favor.

PS: Alternate Histories in MM? Couldn't resist